Projections · 2026 Week 9

Point projections, opportunity-aware

Weekly points for every fantasy-relevant player, with floor, ceiling and the chance he plays.

How it works

Each projection starts with volume (team plays from the Vegas line, then the player's share of targets, carries and dropbacks) and adds efficiency, touchdowns tied to the team's implied total, and the matchup. Points assume he plays; the play column is the chance he does. The floor-to-ceiling bar runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of outcomes, with a tick at the projection; boom is a week like a top-6 QB, top-12 RB, top-18 WR or top-6 TE, bust is below a starter's week.

Updated Thu, Nov 5 · refreshed Tue, Wed and Sun as lines and injuries change

473 players

Start / sit

who scores more this week

Pick two players here, or with the button on any row, to see the chance each one outscores the other.

#PlayerProjFloor – ceilingBoom · bustVolumeTeamPlay

1
Puka NacuaWR
LA @ WAS
24.613.537.772%10%12.4 tgt · 9.2 rec26.597%
2
Jahmyr GibbsRB
DET @ MIA
23.712.234.668%12%18.9 car · 5.8 tgt28.897%
3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
SEA vs ARI
23.712.536.770%12%10.9 tgt · 7.6 rec24.097%
4
Bijan RobinsonRB
ATL vs CIN
22.010.532.963%15%17.9 car · 5.5 tgt24.897%
5
Joe BurrowQB
CIN @ ATL
21.19.632.838%38%38 att · 2.7 car27.897%
6
Brock PurdyQB
SF vs LV
21.19.632.839%36%34 att · 4.3 car31.397%
7
Josh AllenQB
BUF @ MIN
20.28.831.937%39%28 att · 7.1 car24.597%
8
Patrick MahomesQB
KC vs NYJ
19.39.429.729%48%34 att · 3.7 car28.897%
9
Christian McCaffreyRB
SF vs LVQuestionable (Sleeper)
19.27.730.152%22%13.9 car · 6.4 tgt31.375%
10
Drake MayeQB
NE vs GB
19.09.129.429%49%31 att · 5.7 car24.397%
11
Jared GoffQB
DET @ MIA
18.99.029.326%50%33 att · 1.9 car28.897%
12
Caleb WilliamsQB
CHI vs TB
18.99.029.326%51%33 att · 4.7 car26.897%
13
Ja'Marr ChaseWR
CIN @ ATL
18.87.631.851%24%10.5 tgt · 7.0 rec27.897%
14
Kenneth Walker IIIRB
KC vs NYJ
18.67.129.648%25%18.2 car · 4.3 tgt28.897%
15
Jayden DanielsQB
WAS vs LA
18.68.729.027%51%31 att · 6.5 car21.097%
16
Dak PrescottQB
DAL @ IND
18.28.428.723%53%36 att · 3.2 car28.597%
17
Trevor LawrenceQB
JAX @ BAL
17.88.828.724%55%30 att · 3.6 car24.897%
18
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR
DET @ MIA
17.76.530.750%26%9.4 tgt · 6.5 rec28.897%
19
D'Andre SwiftRB
CHI vs TB
17.35.728.242%33%17.0 car · 3.7 tgt26.897%
20
Drake LondonWR
ATL vs CIN
17.16.030.145%30%9.6 tgt · 5.9 rec24.897%
21
CeeDee LambWR
DAL @ IND
17.15.930.145%29%9.6 tgt · 6.1 rec28.597%
22
Jonathan TaylorRB
IND vs DAL
17.15.528.042%32%15.6 car · 3.5 tgt23.097%
23
Matthew StaffordQB
LA @ WASQuestionable (Sleeper)
16.89.025.119%61%34 att · 1.9 car26.575%
24
Tee HigginsWR
CIN @ ATL
16.45.329.542%34%8.0 tgt · 5.2 rec27.897%
25
Kirk CousinsQB
LV @ SF
16.38.828.319%59%34 att · 2.1 car21.397%
26
Chase BrownRB
CIN @ ATL
16.26.827.539%32%13.8 car · 5.7 tgt27.897%
27
Michael Penix Jr.QB
ATL vs CIN
16.28.728.219%59%33 att · 2.9 car24.897%
28
Malik WillisQB
MIA vs DET
16.28.628.220%59%32 att · 5.3 car21.897%
29
James CookRB
BUF @ MIN
16.06.627.339%34%17.5 car · 2.4 tgt24.597%
30
C.J. StroudQB
HOU @ LAC
16.08.428.017%61%33 att · 3.3 car22.597%
31
George KittleTE
SF vs LV
15.96.526.948%31%7.5 tgt · 5.6 rec31.397%
32
Brock BowersTE
LV @ SF
15.86.426.852%28%8.3 tgt · 5.8 rec21.397%
33
Kyren WilliamsRB
LA @ WAS
15.76.327.037%36%14.1 car · 4.0 tgt26.597%
34
Tyler ShoughQB
NO vs CLE
15.68.127.719%61%34 att · 4.1 car22.897%
35
Javonte WilliamsRB
DAL @ IND
15.66.226.938%34%16.8 car · 3.0 tgt28.597%
36
Bo NixQB
DEN @ CAR
15.36.025.513%69%34 att · 4.7 car23.597%
37
Jordan LoveQB
GB @ NE
15.25.925.411%70%32 att · 2.3 car21.397%
38
Chuba HubbardRB
CAR vs DEN
15.15.726.536%34%15.8 car · 3.7 tgt21.097%
39
Trey McBrideTE
ARI @ SEA
15.15.726.146%31%8.9 tgt · 6.7 rec15.597%
40
Baker MayfieldQB
TB @ CHI
15.15.725.311%71%31 att · 3.0 car20.897%
41
DeVonta SmithWR
PHI vs NYGOut (last week)
14.94.625.935%38%8.7 tgt · 5.7 rec17.55%
42
Chris OlaveWR
NO vs CLE
14.84.525.834%39%8.6 tgt · 5.7 rec22.897%
43
Deshaun WatsonQB
CLE @ NOQuestionable (Sleeper)
14.75.423.410%73%33 att · 5.7 car19.875%
44
Kyler MurrayQB
MIN vs BUFQuestionable (Sleeper)
14.65.323.311%72%30 att · 5.0 car21.075%
45
J.J. McCarthyQB
NYG @ PHI
14.55.223.111%73%31 att · 3.4 car21.097%
46
Josh JacobsRB
GB @ NE
14.46.025.436%35%14.8 car · 3.7 tgt21.397%
47
Zay FlowersWR
BAL vs JAX
14.44.125.434%40%7.5 tgt · 5.1 rec14.897%
48
Bryce YoungQB
CAR vs DEN
14.45.123.010%74%33 att · 2.3 car21.097%
49
Bucky IrvingRB
TB @ CHI
14.25.925.232%38%14.7 car · 3.4 tgt20.897%
50
Garrett WilsonWR
NYJ @ KCQuestionable (Sleeper)
14.13.825.131%42%8.6 tgt · 5.5 rec18.875%
51
Malik NabersWR
NYG @ PHI
14.13.825.133%40%8.3 tgt · 5.2 rec21.097%
52
Justin JeffersonWR
MIN vs BUF
14.05.025.931%41%8.3 tgt · 5.3 rec21.097%
53
Rhamondre StevensonRB
NE vs GB
13.55.124.530%43%11.5 car · 3.5 tgt24.397%
54
Nico CollinsWR
HOU @ LAC
13.44.525.430%46%7.1 tgt · 4.4 rec22.597%
55
Ashton JeantyRB
LV @ SF
13.34.924.330%41%11.9 car · 4.7 tgt21.383%
56
Daniel JonesQB
IND vs DAL
13.24.521.77%80%35 att · 3.0 car23.097%
57
Geno SmithQB
NYJ @ KC
13.24.521.75%82%32 att · 2.9 car18.897%
58
Sam DarnoldQB
SEA vs ARI
13.24.421.76%81%30 att · 2.2 car24.097%
59
George PickensWR
DAL @ IND
13.14.225.029%48%6.9 tgt · 4.4 rec28.597%
60
Justin HerbertQB
LAC vs HOU
13.04.321.66%80%31 att · 4.8 car18.097%
61
Emeka EgbukaWR
TB @ CHIOut (last week)
13.04.125.029%46%8.5 tgt · 4.8 rec20.85%
62
Bhayshul TutenRB
JAX @ BAL
13.05.524.328%45%13.6 car · 2.3 tgt24.899%
63
Stefon DiggsWR
WAS vs LA
12.94.024.826%51%7.1 tgt · 4.9 rec21.097%
64
Tetairoa McMillanWR
CAR vs DEN
12.93.924.828%47%7.7 tgt · 4.6 rec21.097%
65
Braelon AllenRB
NYJ @ KC
12.85.324.126%45%13.4 car · 3.2 tgt18.897%
66
Christian WatsonWR
GB @ NEQuestionable (Sleeper)
12.83.924.830%47%6.1 tgt · 3.9 rec21.364%
67
Jonah ColemanRB
DEN @ CAR
12.65.023.924%51%9.9 car · 3.0 tgt23.597%
68
Jameson WilliamsWR
DET @ MIA
12.33.222.226%52%5.9 tgt · 3.8 rec28.897%
69
Harold Fannin Jr.TE
CLE @ NO
12.34.420.830%49%7.0 tgt · 4.9 rec19.897%
70
Tyler WarrenTE
IND vs DAL
12.24.320.829%49%7.4 tgt · 5.2 rec23.097%
71
A.J. BrownWR
NE vs GBQuestionable (Sleeper)
12.23.122.122%53%7.6 tgt · 4.6 rec24.375%
72
Jacoby BrissettQB
ARI @ SEA
12.14.125.98%75%34 att · 3.2 car15.597%
73
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR
SF vs LVQuestionable (Sleeper)
12.13.022.024%53%5.7 tgt · 4.1 rec31.364%
74
Derrick HenryRB
BAL vs JAX
12.14.523.423%49%15.2 car · 1.5 tgt14.883%
75
Mike EvansWR
SF vs LVQuestionable (Sleeper)
12.03.022.025%53%6.7 tgt · 4.1 rec31.364%
76
Luther Burden IIIWR
CHI vs TB
12.02.921.922%54%6.0 tgt · 4.3 rec26.897%
77
Sam LaPortaTE
DET @ MIA
11.94.020.529%51%5.9 tgt · 4.4 rec28.897%
78
Rashee RiceWR
KC vs NYJ
11.82.821.823%54%6.1 tgt · 4.3 rec28.897%
79
Matthew GoldenWR
GB @ NE
11.82.721.824%53%7.1 tgt · 4.2 rec21.397%
80
Parker WashingtonWR
JAX @ BAL
11.82.721.724%53%6.4 tgt · 3.8 rec24.897%
81
Quinshon JudkinsRB
CLE @ NO
11.74.123.023%49%14.2 car · 2.9 tgt19.883%
82
Woody MarksRB
HOU @ LAC
11.74.123.017%58%15.5 car · 2.9 tgt22.597%
83
Breece HallRB
NYJ @ KCQuestionable (Sleeper)
11.64.022.922%50%12.4 car · 2.9 tgt18.864%
84
Rome OdunzeWR
CHI vs TB
11.52.923.023%55%6.8 tgt · 3.9 rec26.897%
85
Travis KelceTE
KC vs NYJ
11.53.620.025%54%6.3 tgt · 4.3 rec28.897%
86
Colston LovelandTE
CHI vs TB
11.43.520.025%55%6.7 tgt · 4.5 rec26.897%
87
Michael WilsonWR
ARI @ SEAQuestionable (Sleeper)
11.42.822.922%54%7.6 tgt · 4.4 rec15.575%
88
Cam SkatteboRB
NYG @ PHIQuestionable (Sleeper)
11.32.622.018%60%12.7 car · 2.4 tgt21.075%
89
Omar Cooper Jr.WR
NYJ @ KC
11.22.622.623%58%4.5 tgt · 3.1 rec18.897%
90
Keenan AllenWR
IND vs DAL
11.02.422.520%55%7.1 tgt · 4.8 rec23.097%
91
Tanner McKeeQB
PHI vs NYG
10.92.924.63%85%31 att · 3.3 car17.597%
92
Malik WashingtonWR
MIA vs DET
10.72.122.219%58%6.4 tgt · 4.3 rec21.897%
93
Denzel BostonWR
CLE @ NO
10.72.122.221%56%6.5 tgt · 3.6 rec19.897%
94
Jaylen WaddleWR
DEN @ CAR
10.51.922.015%64%6.4 tgt · 3.8 rec23.583%
95
Dylan SampsonRB
CLE @ NO
10.51.821.115%63%6.8 car · 4.0 tgt19.897%
96
Josh DownsWR
IND vs DAL
10.42.318.614%66%6.9 tgt · 4.4 rec23.097%
97
Chris Godwin Jr.WR
TB @ CHI
10.42.218.515%64%6.1 tgt · 4.3 rec20.897%
98
Isaiah LikelyTE
NYG @ PHI
10.32.820.524%55%6.6 tgt · 4.3 rec21.097%
99
Caleb DouglasWR
MIA vs DET
10.32.218.517%63%5.2 tgt · 3.3 rec21.897%
100
KC ConcepcionWR
CLE @ NO
10.32.218.514%64%6.5 tgt · 4.2 rec19.897%

Showing 100 of 473

Free during the 2026 beta. Every projection and the start/sit odds are free. Planned for Premium: your league's scoring and lineup help for your roster.

What's planned

How accurate is it?Replayed week by week over 2023–2025 using only what was known before kickoff, it beats a season-to-date average by 0.38 points per player-week and matches the expert consensus on error (5.53 vs 5.54 points), while ordering players slightly less well. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles of past outcomes. Boom and bust chances and the start/sit odds come from simulating every game 4,000 times (a boom is a week like a top-6 QB, top-12 RB, top-18 WR or top-6 TE; a bust is below a starter's week), and they were calibrated on 2023–2025: favorites given a 62% edge won 63% of the time. Rest of season adds this week to the player's per-game rate over his remaining schedule, matchup by matchup, allowing for the games players typically miss.